Gruber comments on OpenAI’s pursuit of massive funding, likening it to a Ponzi scheme. He reflects on the history of Netscape and Mosaic, providing a glimpse into the past dynamics of unsustainable ventures, and argues that, despite OpenAI’s leading product and user experience (which is hard to argue), it lacks a durable competitive edge.
OpenAI is to this decade’s generative-AI revolution what Netscape was to the 1990s’ internet revolution. The revolution is real, but it’s ultimately going to be a commodity technology layer, not the foundation of a defensible proprietary moat. In 1995, investors mistakenly thought investing in Netscape was a good way to bet on the future of the open internet and the World Wide Web in particular. Investing in OpenAI today is a bit like that